Scientists at the Africa Genome Education Institute Conference report that an effective AIDS vaccine is at least 15 years away. As more research is conducted on vaccines, the time estimate for an effective AIDS vaccine continues to recede. In 1984, Margaret Heckler, Secretary of Health and Human Services, predicted an AIDS vaccine would be available in 1986. In 1997, President Clinton called for an AIDS vaccine by 2007. Now the date has been pushed to 2020 at the earliest -- 40 years following the discovery of HIV.

The importance of the receding AIDS vaccine is that even if one is found to be effective -- and eventually we'll succeed -- the vaccine will have no impact on the approximately 80 million new infections foreseen by UNAIDS by 2025. Since there are no current prospects for medical cures for AIDS, the only remaining strategy for slowing the next 80 million infections is through prevention efforts.

UNAIDS published this week AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025, a study involving over 150 participants from UNAIDS, the African Union, African Development Bank, UNDP, World Bank, Royal Dutch / Shell Group, and others. The conclusion (taken from figure 2, page 23):

Scenario / Cumulative Deaths / Cumulative New Infections / Infections Averted / Cost

1 / 83m / 89m / 0 / $70b
2 / 75m / 65m / 24m / $98b
3 / 67m / 46m / 43m / $195b

Seen first at The Marginal Revolution.